Fantasy managers left in panic after the shocking exit of Egypt and Morocco

With Egypt and Morocco out, two main stars of African football have to leave your squad


It was definitely worth considering to triple up on Egypt and Morocco assets given the good fixture vs South Africa and Benin, respectively. However, the shocking defeats left Fantasy managers in panic in what to do with the cash left from Mohamed Salah (12.9M) and Hakim Ziyach (10.8M). It is time to sell them, much earlier than expected, but with the lot of cash now released, who are the best alternatives?

There are certainly many heavy hitters left in the competition, as well as great budget picks, and in this article we look at the eight nations who will play the quarter finals and we analyze the best picks of each team.

Algeria


Riyad Mahrez (10.6M) has 25 points from 3 matches, with 2 goals and 4 shots on target, as well as 19 ball recoveries. Algeria showed once again that they are the best team in the tournament so far and are capable to go to the final stages. He takes all set-pieces except for penalties. Riyad looks to be the obvious direct replacement to Salah (12.9M) or Ziyach (10.8M).

Youcef Belaïli (6.1M) is an excellent cut-budget midfielder who scored 2 goals so far in the cup. He, however, did not manage to pick up any extra points from ball recoveries, so his defensive duties are less than Mahrez (10.6M). Nevertheless, he remains an excellent option at his price.

Baghdad Bounedjah’s (8.0M) owners must consider themselves unlucky as he could have scored against Guinea, but he looked very lively and registered an assist. He is still the number 1 striker in the team and he is on penalty duty.

Benin


There are no expensive asset in Benin so it is easy to fit anyone in our fantasy teams. Poté (5.1M) is the highest points scorer in the team, with 17 points. He has a difficult match vs Senegal, but he scored 2 goals in their draw vs Ghana, before defeating Morocco after 120 minutes. Everything is possible in AFCON, so Poté can do the damage to Senegal.

Côte d’Ivoire


Jonathan Kodjia (8.1M) has 1 goal and 1 assist in 3 starts. His ownership is as low as 7%. He is, very likely, the penalty taker for the national team as he took the last awarded penalty in March 2019.

Wilfrid Zaha (9.3M) started the cup from the bench, which concerned fantasy managers, but he made himself an essential part of starting XI after scoring the winner goal vs Mali, to add to his goal vs Namibia. Zaha is known for being a good dribbler and winning a lot of penalties at Crystal Palace. With the VAR to be used in QFs, Zaha can benefit from it if Algerian defenders mistime a tackle on the winger.

Franck Kessié (6.2M) played every minute so far in AFCON. He is in fine form after his hat-trick of assists vs Namibia. The midfielder registered 25 ball recoveries, more than any other teammate, and returned an extra point in every game so far. You can expect some returns from him.

Madagascar


Similar to Benin, it is easy to fit their assets due to their low prices but Andrea (5.7M) remains their best value along with Lalaïna (5.0M). If you fancy Madagascar to continue their surprises, they are the ones to look for.

Nigeria


Odion Ighalo (11.1M) was about to be forgotten, despite being the top goal scorer in the AFCON qualification, but Ighalo grabbed 2 goals and 1 assist in the last game vs Cameroon to pay off the 8% owners. Certainly this percentage is going to increase and he can score against any team on his day. He registered 4 shots on target in which 3 were goals. He is very clinical and this would certainly help for getting more points. His only downside is his price bracket, so fantasy managers may think twice before investing in him.

Alex Iwobi (9.0M) registered his first return in Africa Fantasy with a goal vs Cameroon. His performance is still underwhelming and at his price, it is hard to justify the buy. However, he is only owned by 8% so he could be very good differential moving forward.

Senegal


Sadio Mané (12.6M) is one of the hottest assets in the market at the moment. Many managers swapped Salah (12.9M) with Mané (12.6M) with 38% ownership at the time of publishing the article. Mané carried on a lot of drama with his owners over the last two GWs with 3 goals and 2 penalty misses. It is yet to be seen if he will continue to be the penalty taker as he has declared he has temporarily stepped down from penalty duties, while the head coach Aliou Cissé has insisted that the Liverpool star is still the number one for penalties.

Ismaïla Sarr (7.8M) can be a cheaper route to Senegal attack. He started 3 of the 4 games in the cup so he looks nailed on the right wing. With 3 shots on target and 12 ball recoveries so far, he can offer some attacking return vs Benin, but stats show that it is worth the upgrade to Mané, who has a more attacking role.

Mbaye Niang (10.5M) is only owned by 7% teams, which is very understandable as he only returned 1 assist in 4 games. However, he started all matches and he is trusted to start all games despite his goalless run so far. He registered as many shots on target (4) as Ighalo did, so we can tell that Niang is due a goal!

South Africa


The Bafana Bafana assets are in handy price with Tau (6.0M) offering excellent value. He is yet to score his first goal but still managed to score 17 points thanks to his assist vs Namibia and his defensive attributes. He managed an extra point from ball recoveries every game, as well as 2 points from 5 shots on target in the last 4 games. Tau can return again vs Nigeria, who looked shaky at the back vs Madagascar and Cameroon, in addition to his defensive attributes. Surprisingly, he is still owned by only 3% so he is certainly a great differential pick.

Mothiba (6.5M) is another option in the attack. Like Tau, he registered 1 assist vs Egypt. However, he does not offer the defensive points that Tau offer and he is 0.5M more expensive. Nevertheless, he is an interesting option as he is owned by almost 0%.

Tunisia


Wahbi Khazri (8.4M) has 1 goal in 4 matches and registered 3 shots on target in the run. He started from the bench vs Ghana but he played 52 minutes. He is fresh to start the next game vs Madagascar, who needed 120 minutes to go through DR Congo.

Taha Khenissi (7.0M) scored for the first time vs Ghana in the AFCON. He is only owned by 6%. Khenissi registered 2 Shots on target vs Ghana and looked lively in the game. He is expected to keep his place and start vs Madagascar.

Fantasy managers need more than 5 defenders in their teams

The meta-game of Africa Fantasy: defenders, temperatures and rotation


This article was written before the Mauritania vs Angola match. Some information is not up to date.

In the last article, we raised question marks whether Premium forwards will justify their price tag in Africa Fantasy given the consistent delivery from the defenders in round 1.

With round 2 about to wrap up, Egypt, Nigeria and Algeria secured their 2nd clean sheet in the AFCON and qualified to the next round. In terms of Africa Fantasy, we got further evidence that defenders offer excellent value in terms of price per points. Since the last article, defenders took the fantasy game to another level not only by keeping clean sheets, but also by scoring goals. Many fantasy managers wish they had even more than 5 spots in their teams for defenders, because there are so many excellent options in this game.

What else have the defenders done in AFCON2019?


GameWeek 1 finished with a 2–0 win to Cameroon over Guinea-Bissau. Guinea-Bissau gave Cameroon a very good game until the 66th minute, when the center back Yaya Banana (5.5M) scored the first goal for Cameroon, making him the first defender to score in AFCON2019.

The second group stage round kicked-off with Egypt vs DR Congo, a game where many managers gave the armband to either Mohamed Salah (13.0M) or Mahmoud Trezeguet (8.6M). However, the highest points scorer was Ahmed Elmohamady (6.5M), who scored 12pts with a goal and clean sheet. He has now 19pts in Afica Fantasy, joined highest points scorer with Omeruo (6.5M), who also scored a goal and clean sheet for Nigeria in, yet again, a difficult 1–0 win against Guinea.

Interestingly enough, the top 5 points scorer in Africa Fantasy so far are all defenders with Elmohamady (19pts) and Omeruo (19pts) at the top. If we expand the list, only 18 players scored 13pts or more in the entire game. Those are 3 goalkeepers, 11 defenders, 2 midfielders and only 2 forwards. This is a clear message from the defenders that they are worth every penny and they made it very hard to justify going with the very popular 3–4–3 or 3–5–2 formation.

We should also give an honorable mention to Kazapua (4.0M / NAM), one of the most valuable goalkeepers in the game, who scored 9pts in 2 games without a clean sheet in the cup thanks to his 11 saves, more than any other keeper. We tipped him in the previous article as a perfect example to the cheap goalkeepers with huge saves potential and he proved it again vs South Africa, finishing at 5pts in this game.


Has the goals per match ratio improved in the recent games?

In the last article, we mentioned that the goals/game ratio was at 1.76 goals/match at the time of publishing the article. Now, AFCON registered 43 goals in 21 matches (2.05 goals/match) which is almost exactly the ratio of AFCON2017 in Gabon with (2.06 goals/match). However, we found a specific pattern in when these goals are scored.

Everyday we have three matches, with kick-offs at 14:30 GMT, 17:00 GMT and 20:00 GMT. In the six matches played at 14:30 GMT, only 8 goals were scored (1.33 goals/match), while the 17:00 GMT kick-offs registered 11 goals in seven matches (1.57 goals/match). However, the evening kick-offs were more festive games to the fans, with 24 goals in eight matches — more than the two earlier kick-offs combined! — shooting the ratio up to (3.0 goals/match).


The most sensible explanation to the huge gap in the ratios is due to the high temperature, up to 38°C, during the first two kick-offs, which makes the games slower in the build up, with less creativity and more fatigue to the players. On the other hand, the temperature cools down to 25°C in the late matches, allowing the players to increase their work rate and, therefore, the teams can play quicker and make the games more lively.

Round 3 will only have matches at 16:00 GMT and 19:00 GMT, so there is an opportunity for fantasy managers to, potentially, consider targeting defenders from 17:00 GMT games and midfielders and forwards from 20:00 GMT.

Are we facing rotation risks from the qualified teams?

So far, we know that Egypt, Nigeria, Algeria and Morocco booked their ticket to the next round, which makes their assets at rotation risk. Round 3 is the only opportunity to rest their key players and bring on fresh legs to prepare for the knockout stages. Egypt is yet to secure the 1st spot in their match vs Uganda so for now we can only advice to keep an eye on the news and press conferences for more clues about the lineup. Rotation is more likely to happen with Algeria, who will definitely qualify as group B winners regardless of their last game result vs Tanzania, who has also nothing to play for, with Kenya and Senegal playing for 2nd and 3rd spot.

Conclusion

  • Once again, Defense proved to have the upper hand over the Midfield and Forwards with more points scored and more value for money. Managers should make sure they have five strong defenders moving forward into round 3.
  • Kazapua (4.0M) and Akpeyi (5.1M) are currently the most valuable goalkeepers in terms of points for money. Investing in them for round 3 may offer good return from them, subject to any rotation risk.
  • The 20:00 GMT kick-off games registered more goals than the earlier kickoffs combined, so fantasy managers may consider investing in defenders from early kick-off games and attacking assets from the late kick-off games.
  • Egypt, Nigeria, Algeria and Morocco booked their ticket to the next round. Beware when investing in these teams, as head coaches may bring on fresh legs and rest their key players for knock-out stages.

What have Fantasy managers learned from Round 1 of AFCON2019?

A deep analysis of AFCON round 1


This article was written before the Mali vs Mauritania match. Some information is not up to date.

AFCON 2019 Round 1 matches are about to conclude and, as expected, Egypt, Nigeria, Morocco, Senegal, Algeria and Ivory Coast kicked off the tournament with excellent performances and a win — Tunisia was the only top contender that disappointed, with draw against Angola. Uganda showed solidity in defense and secured a convenient victory over DR Congo.

However, no team had a walk over to win its game, with four matches finishing at 1–0 and three matches at 2–0.

Round 1 was a low scoring GameWeek, with quite a few number of clean sheets and, so far, only Mali managed to score more than two goals, winning by 4–1 against Mauritania. In fact, before this game, we only had 16 goals scored in nine games (1.77 goals/match). To put that into perspective, AFCON2017, in Gabon, registered 66 goals across 32 matches, with an average of 2.06 goals/match.

This round raises questions whether fantasy managers need to reassess investing in heavy hitters from midfield and forwards. We analyzed each position and we collected all relevant data to come up with concrete conclusions from round 1.

Goalkeepers


Seven GKs managed to score 5 pts or more in round 1. Akpeyi (5.0M / NGA) was the star man in this position, with CS and 6 saves, taking him to 9 pts. It was interesting to see how goalkeepers from 3rd and 4th spot teams scored respectful fantasy points because of the number of saves.

Sibanda (4.5M / ZIM) conceded a sole goal from Trezeguet but he managed to score 6 pts, as he made 8 saves in the match.

Kazapua (4.0M / NAM) was the cheapest starting goalkeeper. He was on 8 pts until they conceded the unfortunate own goal in the last minutes of the game. He finished the game at 4pts.

Manula (4.5M / TAN) is another example of how to rack up the points just from the saves. Although Tanzania conceded two goals from Senegal, he managed to make 9 saves. That is 4 pts from saves. Manula finished at 5 pts.

Conclusion

Many Fantasy managers will have the tendency to pick the expensive goalkeepers from top-side teams who have higher chances to keep CS, but round 1 shows the ability of 4.0M and 4.5M to rack up the points just from saves, so fantasy managers may need to consider, potentially or deliberately, picking cheap goalkeepers who face teams like Egypt, Senegal, Nigeria — teams who will shoot on target more often.

Defenders


We have seen a lot of value from the defenders in this first GameWeek. Egypt, Uganda, Nigeria, Morocco, Senegal and Algeria all kept clean sheets. Aina (6.0M / NGA), Ashraf (6.0M / EGY) and Atal (6.0M / ALG) rewarded their managers with an assist too, taking them to 10 pts tally, more than any other defender this round.

Another key aspect in the fantasy game is the number of balls recovered (BS). Aina (6.0M / NGA), Ashraf (6.0M / EGY), Sabaly (5.5M / SEN) and Walusimbi (5.0M / UGA) have all scored extra points by having more than 5 balls recovered in their matches.

Omar Moussa (4.0M / BDI) scored 4 pts, 2 of which came from 10 balls recovered, more than any other defender in round 1.

Uganda proved again that five clean sheets in six games in the qualification was not a matter of luck. They were very solid defensively and DR Congo could not find a way to break them down. Jjuuko (4.5M / UGA) and Mugabi (4.5M / UGA) are great options for clean sheets at this price bracket, while their teammate Walusimbi (5.0M) scored 7 pts (CS + 1 pt from 5 balls recovered).

Nigeria, Uganda and Egypt have great fixtures in GameWeek 2 and investing in this squads looks like the way to go. South Africa could offer CS potential as they face Namibia, who failed to register any shot on target against Morocco.

Conclusion

The high amount of clean sheets in round 1 may encourage fantasy managers to go heavy in the back. It will be tempting to go 4 in the back or even 5 in the back after seeing the potential the defenders can offer in the game.

Midfielders


Many fantasy managers were sweating on Hakim Ziyach (11.5M / MAR) to deliver points after moving the captaincy from Salah (13.0M /EGY), who scored only 5 pts. A late own goal (assisted by Ziyach) put those who kept faith in him with 8 pts. The question remains, did they justify their prices and shall managers keep the heavy hitters?

Salah (13.0M / EGY) did not score for Egypt in the first game but he had four shots on target, more than any other player in the tournament. Moreover, Salah created two attempts for assist, both missed by Mohsen (9.5M). This is what we expect from Salah as he finished the Premier League season with 64 shots on target, 14 more than the next player, Paul Pogba. Fantasy managers should expect Salah to continue his offensive role and goals are imminent for him.

Ziyach (11.0M / MAR) was Morocco’s MVP in their match vs Namibia. The midfielder had three shots on target, three attempts for assist and nine balls recovered, more than any of his teammates in all aspects. He is also on set-pieces, which boosts his fantasy prospects. Ziyach is a key player for the national team and his statistics suggest he will continue to deliver points because of his defensive and offensive sides.

Mahrez (10.5M / ALG) scored a goal in the game vs Kenya. Unlike Ziyach and Salah, Mahrez registered less shots on target (two) and attempts of assist (none). The heat map showed that the Algerian captain played in a deeper role, to support the midfield. That being said, Mahrez rewarded his fantasy managers with an extra point from 5 balls recovered, which makes him the perfect package to deliver offensive and defensive points.

Alex Iwobi (9.0M / NGA) and Wilfrid Zaha (9.5M / CIV) disappointed their managers with 3 and 1 point respectively. Iwobi played very deep on the left wing and did not make any shot in the game. However, he provided three attempts of assists but none was converted to a goal. Zaha started from the bench as Ivory Coast coach started Gradel (7.0M / CIV) on the left wing. Zaha came off the bench in the last 21 minutes but failed to make any impact.

Conclusion

The midfielders from the premium bracket put in great performances offensively and defensively which rewarded fantasy managers extra points from, for example, shots on target and ball recoveries. On the other hand, the midfielders from the mid-price bracket (7.0M-10.0M) failed to impress fantasy managers, unlike the budget midfielders. This raises question marks whether fantasy managers should invest in the mid-price bracket midfielders.

Forwards


Unlike Defense and Midfield, there was much less value from the forwards in round 1. In fact, no forward scored more than 7 pts this round. Six players managed to score a goal, with five of them priced at 8.0M or less.

Ighalo (11.5M / NGA) was the only premium forward who started from the bench, came on in the last 17 minutes and scored the only goal for Nigeria vs Burundi.

Bounedjah (8.0M / ALG) met the expectations and carried on his fine form with his club to the national team, scoring from the penalty spot. He also registered four shots in total (but only one on target).

Kaddu (5.0M / UGA) was the most valuable forward this round by scoring a goal for Uganda and registering 6 pts.

Conclusion

The premium forwards failed to justify their price tag. Keeping faith in Ighalo may pay off given the great fixtures for Nigeria moving forward. Apart from that, it looks like the budget strikers can bring good value if you pick the right assets.

Overall Conclusion

We can now connect all the dots from our analysis. Having low scoring results meant higher amount of clean sheets, hence high value in the defense and less opportunities for the expensive forwards to justify their prices. Meanwhile, Salah, Mahrez and Ziyach kicked off well statistically and returned relatively good fantasy points, but the expectations remain high on the Egyptian king to prove that he deserves to be the most expensive player in the game.

Many fantasy managers may reassess their investments and go big in defense, keep some heavy hitters in midfield and rely on the budget forwards to get the business done.

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